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Posted by on 2012/09/15 under Uncategorized

11am – Kashiwa v Sapporo – 1.23 home – 8th v 18th ( bottom) – 7 of Kashiwa’s 8 defeats have come against top 6 sides ( and that’s after 24 matches so the form should have a dependable feel to it.) 2-4-2-6-2-1-4-2 scored against bottom 6 sides home and away. The only time they scored a single goal, they drew 1-1. DDDLL last 5 for Kashiwa home and away. 1-1-0-0-0 scored in those 5 matches, so a slight concern with a dip in form, or simply coinciding with better teams in the league?

Sapporo have won only 3 all season, and they were away. Only 1 draw for Sapporo in 24 this season was a 0-0 in the first match of the season.

My concerns here would lie with Kashiwa’s poor form in their last 5 and inability to score in last 3. I would perhaps take out a 0-0 insurance bet with any angle in.

1230pm – St Johnstone v Celtic – 1.44 away – LD at home so far for St Johnstone . A slight concern re Celtic is their match with Benfica in 4 days time. Will this mean John Lennon rests key players in the expectation of an easy assignment? Celtic’s head to heads with St Johnstone recently have been tough fought , either 1-0 or 2-0 wins. St Johnstone only scored once in last 5 head to heads, resulting in a 1-0.

Suggestion therefore that we can delay entry into this market in the hope St Johnstone keep it tight and eventually capitulate. A possible low scoring 0-1 , 0-2 is suggested by the head to heads. Celtic have scored 4 and 2 in their last 2 matches. Celtic have also conceded 1-2-2 in their last 3 matches which might threaten the 0-1, 0-2 which the head to heads suggested.

St Johnstone scored an 83rd minute goal v Aberdeen and no goal in their last match. They don’t look likely to get 2 today do they?

Looks like a typical away day for Celtic where they will struggle and eventually win. This might be exacerbated by their upcoming match v Benfica, so watch out for team news and a possibly weakened Bhoys side. St Johnstone, so the Racing Post tells me, have had a stomach bug throughout the side which should make Celtic backers a lot more confident despite the spectre of a midweek Benfica clash,

1245pm – Norwich v West Ham – 2.46 home – 15th v 7th after only 3 matches.

5-0, 1-1, 1-1 for Norwich to date. No win in 3 just yet and 2 consecutive score draws. The transfer dust has settled down so it’s worth looking at the ins and outs.Kane and Bassong in from Spuds, Garrido from Lazio and 2 from Rangers . Not much spending as you can appreciate. Lappin, Bennett and Whittaker are sidelined for Chris Hughton.

1-0 and 3-0 home wins for West Ham and a 3-0 away loss to Swansea. What to make of another survivor from last season?

Andy Carroll a great acquisition along with Benayoun. £9.5 mill for jarvis from Wolves, Collins from Villa the other eyecatcher in the transfer market.

The addition of Andy Carroll is a potential spanner in the works here. What dynamic will he bring to the team and how influential will he be. Indeed Jarvis, at nearly £10 mill, must have some positive influence.

Advantage West Ham with their interesting signings, in what admittedly is a toughie to read given the signings. BUT now I learn that Andy Carroll-Vorderman is out with a pulled hamstring. So the advantage Hammers may not be as great as first thought.

230pm – B Munich v Mainz – 1.2 home – WLWLWD for………MAINZ in head to heads. Are they a bogey team for Bayern Munchen? Big signings for Bayern in the form of Javi Martinez, Shakiri and MAndzukic . Mandzukic has already scored in both wins this season, where Bayern scored 3 and 6.

1-1 and 0-1 (loss) see mainz in poor shape. Their goal was courtesy of a late penalty and could suggest, if Bayern can get the monkey off their back ( head to heads) then they could win to nil. Another slightly unreadable match as the new signings for Bayern . A feeling though, with 9 in 2, against 1 in 2 scored, this could be a goalfest, unless Mainz really are a bogey team.

If you are guided by head to heads, then 1.2 is far too short .

230pm – Dortmund v Leverkusen – 1.51 home – Kagawa the only major exit for Dortmund, meaning that the goal machine Lewandowski is still at Dortmund. Dortmund are one of my fav teams , especially at home with a crazy home support. They are a great disciplined side who are hard to break down because they hunt in packs when they don’t have the ball. The last 2 head to heads have been 0-0 and 1-0 ( funnily enough a Kagawa goal) , and I suppose that is factored into the 1.51 quote for Dortmund.

2-1 home win ( winner late on) and 1-1 draw for Dortmund. 2-1 away loss and 2-0 win for Leverkusen thus far. Little to get my teeth into suffice to say I would not be opposing Dortmund at home with Lewandowski still in the side.

3pm – Arsenal v Southampton – 1.38 home – The Saints have put up superb displays against Manchester United and Manchester City ( just ask my Betfair balance!!) – and I dearly hope that they will give another big gun a scare. 1-2 up at City and 1-2 up at Man Utd, but saints are facing a Steve Bould build defence who are yet to concede in the premiership and in SantaClaus Cazorla, they have a midfield maestro.

For all their endeavour let’s not forget the Saints have conceded 3-2-3 so far in 3 matches and , whilst scoring 2-0-2 , they are meeting a team who have conceded 0-0-0.

arsenal have an away trip against Montpellier in the Champions League on the 18th September. This should present few problems, shouldn’t it?

Hold fire for team news.

Patterns – Arsenal 3 without conceding are facing a team who have scored twice against top 2 from last season. Another major scalp or are arsenal’s defence better than the MAnchester’s? Will Southampton score again, or will Arsenal keep a clean sheet again?

Ricky LAmbert has scored against City and United. How about scoring , not just against 1st and 2nd from last year, but 3rd as well?

Angles in? If you think Arsenal can keep a clean sheet ( and the longer the sequence of clean sheets, the nearer they will be to it ending), then a win to nil could be interesting. If you think Saints can score again, then delay entry into this match in the hope they lead at some point in the match, only to eventually capitulate. This should be an eventual Arsenal win, and a hope for me at least that I can back Arsenal at whopping odds as Saints lead going into the last 10 minutes!!!

3pm – Aston Villa v Swansea – 2.4 home – Villa have not won this season ( albeit only 3 matches) and their sole home performance was a 1-3 loss to Everton. Swansea have scored 5-3-2 in their 3 matches this season. Their clean sheets in 2 ended with a 2-2 draw last match. Swansea were unbeaten last season in head to heads, 0-0 and 0-2 away win. They kept a clean sheet. New manager for both sides .

Villa have a distinct set up away from home, albeit only 2 matches to go in. It seems they are highly reliant on defence at home, and perhaps an over eagerness to perform infront of home support could lead to conceding against teams with reasonable attack ( Everton, oh and a Swans side who have scored 10 in 3 matches?)

Villa have made some signings, but no major stars. Swansea have splashed out £7 mill for Hernandez from valencia and sung-Yong from celtic.

They have the greater resources it would seem financially. Sinclair and Allen the 2 prominent transfers out have not adversely affected Swansea yet.

Patterns? Villa no win in 3. Swansea no defeat in 3. Swansea have scored 2+ in all 3 games so far. Yes, patterns are stronger when we have more games to work with, so make of these weakish patterns what you will.

Beware the wounded animal. Conceding 3 at home in first match of season means Villa may react today, especially against a Swansea side developing an attacking flair under laudrup.

Will Swansea keep another clean sheet against Villa? Instinctually I would be a layer of Villa, particularly if they score first.

3pm – Fulham v West Brom – 2.14 home – Fulham unbeaten at home against West Brom and West Brom unbeaten at home against Fulham in last 6 head to heads. The goals in the last 3 meetings have come after the 45th minute.

A 5-0 home win for Fulham against Norwich was impressive, but 2 away defeats see them reverting to form ( 3 conceded in each of those). No Dempsey for Fulham is a big miss as he get crucial goals. Dempsey, Dembele and Bobby Zamora have gone – that is a surprise. Berbatov has been brought in ” enigmatic” I would describe him as ( i.e. plays well intermittently). Richardson and Rodellega 2 other signings laden with experience.

West Brom have been most impressive, dispatching the 2 Liverpool clubs at home without conceding and only conceding 1 away goal v Spurs in the 74th minute.

Is this a new defensive solidity from West Brom under Steve Clarke?

Angles? Well, Fulham must get something from home matches as inexplicably they turn into a Sunday League outfit ( minus 3 players who didn’t turn up because of a hangover) when they are away. Home points will be crucial for Fulham. 3 big attacking departures for Fulham and Berbatov the replacement. Inadequate in my opinion.

West Brom have conceded 1 goal only and that was a 74th minute goal against Spurs ( who have far better attackers than fulham).

Limited form to work with, I could see Fulham layable here, as they may find it hard to score against West Brom. If Fulham score first, I would look to lay them in the hope West Brom equalise ( 1-1 away to Spurs an indication).

Fulham have conceded 3 in last 2 matches ( aways) so are unlikely to concede 3 today? – reaction to defensive incompetence?

0-0 back to lay initially?

3pm – Man Utd v Wigan – 1.21 home -this could be one of those patented Fergie ” massive squad change with Internationals just been and Champions League to follow, against a team we have beaten easily before” then struggle to impose and eventually scrape a 1-0 kind of matches? What do you think?

3pm – QPR v Chelsea – 1.88 away – this could be an awkward affair with the Champions league on the horizon.

3pm – Stoke v Man City – 1.79 away

315pm – Panthrakikos v Panathinaikos – 1.69 away

5pm – Valencia v Celta Vigo – 1.52 home

5pm – Zorya v Shakhtar – 1.12 away

530pm – Giannina v Olympiakos – 1.48 away

530pm – Sunderland v Liverpool – 2.22 away

545pm – Ajax v Waalwijk – 1.2 home

645pm – Willem II v Twente – 1.38 away

7pm – Genk v Waasland-Beveren – 1.38 home

7pm – Getafe v Barcelona – 1.38 away

745pm – AC Milan v Atalanta- 1.54 home

745pm – Feyenoord v Zwolle – 1.28 home

9pm – Sevilla v Real Madrid – 1.65 away

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